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Подходы США к сдерживанию Китая

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Код статьи
S268667300019535-8-
DOI
10.31857/S2686673022030038
Тип публикации
Статья
Статус публикации
Опубликовано
Авторы
Графов Дмитрий Борисович
Том/ Выпуск
Том / Выпуск № 3
Страницы
41-60
Аннотация

В статье рассматриваются перспективы противостояния США и КНР с точки зрения возможностей американских властей ослабить КНР, остановить её возвышение в экономическом, технологическом и военном отношении. Анализируются следующие возможности: ослабление экономики через лишение доступа на рынки, ограничение доступа к сырью и энергоресурсам, изоляция от новых технологий, ослабление военного потенциала через создание враждебных коалиций, проекция военной силы США, создание внутренних проблем в авторитарном режиме. С другой стороны, рассматриваются возможности КНР противостоять США, экономические, технологические, геополитические уязвимости, мотивы поставленной цели – "великой мечты о возрождении китайской нации". Автор приходит к выводу, что экономическая (торговая) война серьёзно не ослабит Китай, если только Вашингтон не втянет Пекин в военный конфликт и не затормозит китайскую экономику с помощью санкций, блокады поставок сырья и критических компонентов. Однако прямое столкновение грозит непредвиденными последствиями для США. Американские военные операции могут быть эффективны лишь до границ континентального Китая. В уязвимом положении Китайская Народная Республика окажется при попытке атаковать Тайвань. Эффективной стратегией Вашингтона будет перенапряжение сил Китая в конфликте с соседями по Индо-Тихоокеанскому региону и изоляция от ключевых торговых партнёров. Однако пока нет ответа на вопрос, как далеко в Вашингтоне готовы зайти в случае широкомасштабного конфликта с Пекином.

Ключевые слова
США, КНР, торговая война, дилемма безопасности, АУКУС, «четвёрка» (QUAD)
Дата публикации
06.04.2022
Год выхода
2022
Всего подписок
11
Всего просмотров
1419

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